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瑞银:2012年全球化工行业展望

2011-12-3 点击:

高成本的一般商品化工企业应该谨慎但积极创新的特种化学品例外

“可持续创新:创造共享价值” - 化学品的关键是,我们同意与迈克尔波特教授和马克克莱默的想法,“创造共享价值”,将可能引发全球经济增长的下一波。通过材料科学,化学品投入是创新的主要供应商。

中国最重要的驱动器,其全球消费量的高份额
Outlook 2012 – value through innovation
􀂄 Cautious on High Cost Commodity Chemicals but positive on innovation
We favour innovative specialty chemicals but remain cautious on calling the
recovery in commodity chemical margins as this will largely be determined by the
end of de-stocking and a resurgence in base chemical demand. Global policy
remains key to outcomes and China will be a key differentiator while cheap but
volatile valuations offer opportunities.
􀂄 “Sustainable Innovation: Creating Shared Value” – Chemicals are key
We agree with Professor Michael Porter and Mark Kramer’s idea that “Creating
Shared Value” will potentially unleash the next wave of global growth. Chemical
inputs are key providers of innovation through materials science. Within Global
Chemicals, we think Novozymes, Umicore, Hitachi Chemical and Monsanto will
be the leaders in Sustainable Innovation.
􀂄 China most important driver with its high share of global consumption
Targeted easing, with broader relaxation of China’s tightening to follow, should lift
chemical imports. Social housing should underpin demand for construction related
bulk chemicals such as PVC and Poly Propylene. Real Estate confidence will also
encourage Chinese demand for durables including autos and white goods leading
support for several plastics and in particular the C4 (butadiene and butyl) chains.
􀂄 Most & Least Preferred Stock Ideas for 2012
Most preferred stocks are Linde, Mosaic, China Blue Chemical, and Hitachi
Chemical. Our least preferred stocks are Petronas Chemicals, Akzo Nobel, Taiyo
Nippon Sanso and Monsanto

GlobalChemicals-Outlook2012:valuethroughinnovation.pdf

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