2023世界能源展望(英文 355 页)

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World Energy Outlook 2023

Table of Contents

目录

Foreword ..... 5

前言

Acknowledgements ..... 7

致谢

Executive summary ....... 17

执行摘要

Overview and key findings 23

1. 概述和主要发现

Introduction ....... 25

引言

1.1 A peak by 2030 for each of the fossil fuels .... 26

1.1 2030年化石燃料各自达到巅峰

1.1.1 Coal: Scaling up clean power hastens the decline ..... 27

1.1.1  煤炭：扩大清洁能源加速下降

1.1.2 Oil: End of the “ICE age” turns prospects around ...... 28

1.1.2 石油：“ICE时代”的结束扭转前景

1.1.3 Natural gas: Energy crisis marks the end of the “Golden Age”...... 29

1.1.3 天然气：能源危机标志着“黄金时代”的结束

1.2 A slowdown in economic growth in China would have huge implications for energy markets .... 31

1.2 中国经济增长放缓将对能源市场产生巨大影响

1.2.1 China’s growth has defined the energy world in recent decades ..... 31

1.2.1 中国的增长在最近几十年中定义了能源世界

1.2.2 Integrating a slowdown in China’s economy into the STEPS ..... 32

1.2.2 将中国经济放缓纳入STEPS

1.2.3 Sensitivities in the Outlook .... 35

1.2.3 展望中的敏感性

1.3 A boom of solar manufacturing could be a boon for the world .... 36

1.3 太阳能制造业的繁荣可能使世界受益

1.3.1 Solar module manufacturing and trade ..... 37

1.3.1 太阳能模块制造和贸易

1.3.2 Solar PV deployment could scale up faster to accelerate transitions 38

1.3.2 太阳能光伏的部署可以加速过渡

1.4 Pathway to a 1.5 °C limit on global warming is very tough, but it remains open ..... 42

1.4 实现全球变暖1.5°C限制的道路非常艰难，但仍然开放

1.4.1 Four reasons for hope ....... 42

1.4.1 希望的四个理由

1.4.2 Four areas requiring urgent attention ....... 46

1.4.2 需要紧急关注的四个领域

1.5 Capital flows are gaining pace, but not reaching the areas of greatest need 49

1.5 资本流动加快，但尚未到达最需要的领域

1.5.1 Fossil fuels ..... 50

1.5.1 化石燃料

1.5.2 Clean energy ...... 51

1.5.2 清洁能源

1.6 Transitions have to be affordable...... 52

1.6 过渡必须是负担得起的

1.6.1 Affordability for households ...... 53

1.6.1 家庭的负担能力

1.6.2 Affordability for industry ....... 55

1.6.2 工业的负担能力

1.6.3 Affordability for governments ....... 57

1.6.3 政府的负担能力

1.7 Risks on the road to a more electrified future ...... 59

1.7 通往更多电气化未来的风险

1.7.1 Managing risks for rapid electrification ..... 60

1.7.1 管理电气化的快速风险

1.7.2 Critical minerals underpin electrification ...... 62

1.7.2 关键矿产支持电气化

1.8 A new, lower carbon pathway for emerging market and developing economies is taking shape ..... 63

1.8 新的、低碳的新兴市场和发展中经济体道路正在形成

1.9 Geopolitical tensions undermine energy security and prospects for rapid,affordable transitions .... 68

1.9 地缘政治紧张局势削弱了能源安全和快速、负担得起的过渡前景

1.9.1 Clean energy in a low-trust world ..... 69

1.9.1 在一个不信任的世界里的清洁能源

1.9.2 Fossil fuels in a low-trust world ..... 71

1.9.2 在一个不信任的世界里的化石燃料

1.9.3 Risks of new dividing lines ..... 72

1.9.3 新分界线的风险

1.10 As the facts change, so do our projections .... 73

1.10 事实改变，我们的预测也会改变

1.10.1 Solar PV and wind generation ....... 75

1.10.1 太阳能光伏和风电发电

1.10.2 Natural gas ..... 77

1.10.2 天然气

2. Setting the scene 79

设定背景

2.1 New context for the World Energy Outlook ...... 81

2.1 世界能源展望的新背景

2.1.1 New clean energy economy ...... 84

2.1.1 新的清洁能源经济

2.1.2 Uneasy balance for oil, natural gas, and coal markets ....... 86

2.1.2 石油、天然气和煤炭市场的不安平衡

2.1.3 Key challenges for secure and just clean energy transitions ..... 88

2.1.3 安全和公正的清洁能源过渡的关键挑战

2.2 WEO scenarios ....... 91

2.2 世界能源展望的场景

2.2.1 Policies ....... 92

2.2.1 政策

2.2.2 Economic and demographic assumptions ..... 93

2.2.2 经济和人口假设

2.2.3 Energy, critical mineral, and carbon prices ..... 95

2.2.3 能源、关键矿产和碳价格

2.2.4 Technology costs ....... 99

2.2.4 技术成本

3. Pathways for the energy mix 101

能源混合的路径

3.1 Introduction ..... 103

3.1 引言

3.2 Overview ..... 104

3.2 概述

3.3 Total final energy consumption ....... 107

3.3 总终端能源消耗

3.3.1 Industry .... 108

3.3.1 工业

3.3.2 Transport ..... 113

3.3.2 交通

3.3.3 Buildings ...... 118

3.3.3 建筑

3.4 Electricity ..... 123

3.4 电力

3.5 Fuels .... 130

3.5 燃料

3.5.1 Oil .... 130

3.5.1 石油

3.5.2 Natural gas ....... 135

3.5.2 天然气

3.5.3 Coal ...... 140

3.5.3 煤炭

3.5.4 Modern bioenergy ....... 145

3.5.4 现代生物能源

3.6 Key clean energy technology trends ....... 147

3.6 关键的清洁能源技术趋势

4. Secure and people-centered energy transitions 155

4. 安全和以人为中心的能源过渡

4.1 Introduction ..... 157

4.1 引言

4.2 Environment and climate .... 158

4.2 环境和气候

4.2.1 Emissions trajectory and temperature outcomes ....... 158

4.2.1 排放轨迹和温度结果

4.2.2 Methane abatement .... 161

4.2.2 甲烷减排

4.2.3 Air quality .... 164

4.2.3 空气质量

4.3 Secure energy transitions .... 166

4.3 安全的能源过渡

4.3.1 Fuel security and trade .... 166

4.3.1 燃料安全和贸易

4.3.2 Electricity security ....... 171

4.3.2 电力安全

4.3.3 Clean energy supply chains and critical minerals .... 178

4.3.3 清洁能源供应链和关键矿产

4.4 People-centered transitions ...... 183

4.4 以人为中心的过渡

4.4.1 Energy access ....... 183

4.4.1 能源获取

4.4.2 Energy affordability ..... 187

4.4.2 能源可负担性

4.4.3 Energy employment .... 191

4.4.3 能源就业

4.4.4 Behavioral change ..... 193

4.4.4 行为改变

4.5 Investment and finance needs .... 197

4.5 投资和融资需求

5. Regional insights 203

区域洞察

5.1 Introduction ..... 205

5.1 引言

5.2 United States ....... 206

5.2 美国

5.2.1 Key energy and emissions trends .... 206

5.2.1 关键能源和排放趋势

5.2.2 How much have the US Inflation Reduction Act and other recent

policies changed the picture for clean energy transitions? ..... 208

5.2.2 美国通货膨胀减少法案和其他最近的政策在多大程度上改变了清洁能源过渡的情况？

5.3 Latin America and the Caribbean .... 211

5.3 拉丁美洲和加勒比

5.3.1 Key energy and emissions trends .... 211

5.3.1 关键能源和排放趋势

5.3.2 What role for Latin America and the Caribbean in maintaining

traditional oil and gas security through energy transitions? ....... 213

5.3.2 拉丁美洲和加勒比在通过能源过渡维护传统石油和天然气安全中扮演什么角色？

5.3.3 Do critical minerals open new avenues for Latin America and the

Caribbean’s natural resources? ....... 214

5.3.3 关键矿产是否为拉丁美洲和加勒比的自然资源开辟了新途径？

5.4 European Union ....... 216

5.4 欧洲联盟

5.4.1 Key energy and emissions trends .... 216

5.4.1 关键能源和排放趋势

5.4.2 Can the European Union deliver on its clean energy and critical

materials targets? .... 218

5.4.2 欧洲联盟能否实现其清洁能源和关键材料目标？

5.4.3 What next for the natural gas balance in the European Union? ..... 219

5.4.3 欧洲联盟的天然气平衡下一步怎么办？

5.5 Africa ....... 221

5.5 非洲

5.5.1 Key energy and emissions trends .... 221

5.5.1 关键能源和排放趋势

5.5.2 Recharging progress towards universal energy access .... 223

5.5.2 重新推动普遍能源获取的进展

5.5.3 What can be done to enhance energy investment in Africa?...... 224

5.5.3 有什么措施可以加强非洲的能源投资？

5.6 Middle East ...... 226

5.6 中东

5.6.1 Key energy and emissions trends .... 226

5.6.1 关键能源和排放趋势

5.6.2 Shifting fortunes for energy exports .... 228

5.6.2 能源出口的命运变迁

5.6.3 How is the desalination sector changing in times of increasing

water needs and the energy transition? ..... 229

5.6.3 随着水需求增加和能源转型，脱盐行业如何变化？

5.7 Eurasia ..... 231

5.7 欧亚大陆

5.7.1 Key energy and emissions trends .... 231

5.7.1 关键能源和排放趋势

5.7.2 What’s next for oil and gas exports from Eurasia? ...... 233

5.7.2 欧亚大陆的石油和天然气出口的下一步是什么？

5.8 China .... 236

5.8 中国

5.8.1 Key energy and emissions trends .... 236

5.8.1 关键能源和排放趋势

5.8.2 How soon will coal use peak in China? .... 238

5.8.2 中国煤炭使用将在多快时间达到峰值？

5.9 India ..... 241

5.9 印度

5.9.1 Key energy and emissions trends .... 241

5.9.1 关键能源和排放趋势

5.9.2 Impact of air conditioners on electricity demand in India ....... 243

5.9.2 空调对印度电力需求的影响

5.9.3 Will domestic solar PV module manufacturing keep pace with solar capacity growth in India?  ....  244

5.9.3 国内太阳能光伏模块制造是否能跟上印度太阳能容量增长的步伐？

5.10 Japan and Korea ...... 246

5.10 日本和韩国

5.10.1 Key energy and emissions trends .... 246

5.10.1 关键能源和排放趋势

5.10.2 Challenges and opportunities of nuclear and offshore wind ....... 248

5.10.2 核能和近海风电的挑战和机会

5.10.3 What role can hydrogen play in the energy mix and how can the

governments deploy it? ....... 249

5.10.3 氢在能源混合中可以发挥什么作用，政府如何部署它？

5.11 Southeast Asia ..... 251

5.11 东南亚

5.11.1 Key energy and emissions trends .... 251

5.11.1 关键能源和排放趋势

5.11.2 How can international finance accelerate clean energy transitions

in Southeast Asia? ....... 253

5.11.2 国际金融如何加速东南亚的清洁能源过渡？

5.11.3 How can regional integration help integrate more renewables? .... 254

5.11.3 区域一体化如何帮助整合更多可再生能源？

Annexes

附录

Annex A. Tables for scenario projections .... 259

附录A. 场景预测表

Annex B. Design of the scenarios .... 295

附录B. 场景设计

Annex C. Definitions .... 319

附录C. 定义

Annex D. References ....... 339

附录D. 参考文献

Annex E. Inputs to the Global Energy and Climate Model ...... 347

附录E. 全球能源和气候模型的输入